Who will win 2024 Ballon d’Or? Predictions, favorites as Vinicius, Bellingham top list of men’s candidates for award | Sporting News

As the most prestigious individual award in global football, the Ballon d’Or garners massive interest every year as publication France Football honours the best player in the world.

The process is almost never smooth and often produces contentious results, but regardless, the winning player sees their profile boosted immeasurably, not least as the winner is voted for by journalists and experts from across the world.

Adding to the award’s prestige is the recent dominance by two of the greatest players to ever grace a pitch. Just two players not named Lionel Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo have won the Ballon d’Or since 2008, a stretch of 15 years where the pair of superstars won all but two of the trophies.

Now, with both Messi and Ronaldo unlikely to win this year’s award on account of them playing in leagues outside of Europe with lower prestige, the 2024 winner will gain a leg up towards becoming established as one of the greatest of the coming generation. Additionally, with the two icons ushered out of the picture, the race for this latest award is as hotly contested as any in recent memory.

With the club season over and a defining summer of international football on the way, The Sporting News takes you through the likely potential winners and discusses each player’s candidacy for the most coveted individual award the sport has to offer.

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Who will win 2024 Ballon d’Or? Candidates, favorites

Below are some of the leading candidates to win the men’s Ballon d’Or in 2024. The Sporting News will update this page until the award is presented.

Vinicius Jr — Forward, Real Madrid

Real Madrid talisman Vinicius Jr. has become a household name throughout the last few years, continuing to see his star shine brighter each and every season. The Brazilian has suffered during several instances of racial abuse in Spain but continues to perform on the biggest stage.

While Vinicius has loads of competition for goals and assists in a stacked Real Madrid squad he remains the unquestioned attacking leader of Europe’s most successful club. In the Champions League final, Vinicius was decisive on the biggest stage yet again, sealing a 2-0 victory over Borussia Dortmund with his 24th goal of the season, two years on from scoring the only goal to down Liverpool in the showpiece.

Still, Vinicius has a lot to prove on the international stage, where these awards are often won or lost. The 24-year-old has a minuscule five career goals for Brazil in his 34 caps, and the Selecao fell short again at a major international tournament, the latest being the 2024 Copa America. Right now, Vinicius is the leader for this award, but a disappointing tournament in the United States may have harmed his chances.

Jude Bellingham — Midfield, Real Madrid

Jude Bellingham has yet to make Real Madrid truly his own, but the 20-year-old England international has done more towards that end than any first-year player in the Spanish capital since Cristiano Ronaldo. He has also accomplished something Ronaldo couldn’t: winning the Champions League in his first Madrid season, and against his former club Borussia Dortmund no less.

The young midfielder is a generational talent, playing a deeper role at the German club at a world-class level until Carlo Ancelotti deployed him as a No. 10. It seemed ridiculous at the time given Bellingham’s exceptional skill level at his old No. 6/No. 8 position, but now with 23 goals and 13 assists on the season across all competitions, it has been proven a masterstroke.

Bellingham has also played a major part for his nation at Euro 2024 as his injury-time overhead kick kept them in the tournament. Should he win the award, he would miss the youngest-ever record by days in October.

MORE: Is Lionel Messi’s record eight Ballon d’Or wins untouchable? Jude Bellingham could break it

Kylian Mbappe — Forward, PSG

Largely considered by many to be the best player in the world right now, Kylian Mbappe will have the public popularity contest on his side at every Ballon d’Or vote in the coming years. Unfortunately for Mbappe, he finds himself behind others in the favorites list as the club season concluded a quiet finish to his PSG career. Mbappe was utterly invisible as PSG flamed out in the Champions League at the hands of Borussia Dortmund, overshadowed by the likes of Jadon Sancho and his teammate Ousmane Dembele on the UCL stage.

In general, Mbappe has been poor since the calendar turned to 2024. Twenty-three of his 44 club goals have come since January 1, but few of those were scored in truly meaningful games — Mbappe bagged eight goals in the Coupe de France, for example, but came up empty in the final as PSG scraped by Lyon 2-1. He scored a Ligue 1 hat-trick against Montpellier plus a brace against Lorient, but he was benched for games against Lille and Lyon, while failing to score against Monaco, Reims, and surprisingly strong Brest. Above all, his multiple no-shows in the Champions League were the most damaging.

For Mbappe to reignite his Ballon d’Or chances in 2024, the Frenchman desperately needed a quality showing at the Euros this summer, but he was really poor and France fell short in the semifinals.

Harry Kane — Forward, Bayern Munich

Nobody in top flight European football scored as many goals this season as Harry Kane did for Bayern Munich, bagging an incredible 44 goals in 45 games throughout his first season in Germany. Unfortunately, like Mbappe, very little of that exceptional haul came in moments that put forth a Ballon d’Or-winning resume.

Most damaging to Kane’s CV was the fact that Bayern failed to win a single trophy this season, extending the cult criticism that the England star is somehow “cursed”. He scored just one goal against the eventual league champions Bayer Leverkusen as the team collected just a single point from those two games, and his only goal in the two Champions League semifinal legs against Real Madrid came from the penalty spot, one of nine penalties he scored across all competitions this season.

Kane offers oodles of goals, as he has his whole career, and this didn’t change at Euro 2024 although his overall performance levels were low. He scored three at the tournament and shared the Golden Boot with five other players. As he’s not quite outshone Jude Bellingham in the process, it would be a monumental task to win this award.

Florian Wirtz — Midfield, Bayer Leverkusen

Nobody in Germany had a better season than Bayer Leverkusen playmaker Florian Wirtz, whose stardom led his club to the precipice of an historic unbeaten season. Die Werkself won a memorable domestic double behind the magic of Xabi Alonso, who led the club to multiple come-from-behind results en route to an invincible domestic campaign.

Twenty-one-year-old Wirtz, in his first full season since returning from an ACL tear, was at the very heart of that season-long brilliance. Playing a No. 10 role with exceptional freedom to move about the pitch, Wirtz scored 18 goals and assisted 20 more, keeping his levels up all season long. He’s now primed to be the focal point of Germany’s attack at a European Championship on home soil, and is a real contender for the tournament’s Golden Ball award.

Unfortunately for Wirtz, two things are working against him here. First, he’s not at a big enough club to gain enough attention necessary for the Ballon d’Or, even amidst Leverkusen’s widely popular run. Second, the Europa League final defeat dealt an unfair but palpable hit to his global perception, as Atalanta completely smothered Leverkusen’s attacking unit, ruining their shot at a fully unbeaten treble.

Phil Foden — Midfield/Forward, Man City

Like Wirtz, Phil Foden pulled the strings for a historic domestic achievement, leading Manchester City to a fourth consecutive Premier League title, something never done before in the English league’s history. Foden would win FWA Footballer of the Year in the process, logging 27 goals and 12 assists across all competitions.

Also like Wirtz, however, Foden has a few unfair factors working against him. First is that while Man City won the league with a truly emphatic title-worthy run-in, their relative failures in both the Champions League and two domestic cup competitions are a disappointment with the club coming off the truly historic treble of last season. It’s not terribly fair to compare the two, but unfortunately, that’s how perception works.

Secondly, Foden has enormous competition for star power and talent within his own squad. Erling Haaland had a down year by his standards and still won the Golden Boot award for the Premier League’s top scorer, while the likes of Rodri and Kevin De Bruyne continue to get headlines anytime they step on the pitch by way of their own individual brilliance, even though the latter’s powers seem to be on the wane. That in turn means this City team could just be becoming Foden’s team. Expect him to be in these conversations frequently over the coming years.

Lionel Messi — Forward, Inter Miami

Nobody in the history of global football has won this award more times than defending Ballon d’Or winner Lionel Messi. The 36-year-old Argentine has won eight of these bad boys, most recently last year, making him the second-oldest winner in its history only behind 41-year-old Stanley Matthews back in 1956.

Now with MLS club Inter Miami, Messi has continued to dominate on a new stage, challenging for the league lead in goals and assists even while earning significant rest amidst a litany of fitness issues.

Unfortunately, it will be an uphill challenge for Messi to win his ninth award. After years of restricting this award to just European players, France Football opened the Ballon d’Or up to any player at any club around the globe back in 2007. Still, the perception of MLS as a lower-tier competition compared to those in Europe will almost surely irreparably harm his chances at winning this award, even if he drags Argentina to another Copa America title.

Technically, Messi became the first player at a non-European club to win the award last year, but the achievements that saw him come top of the vote (such as winning the 2022 World Cup) came before he signed for Inter Miami. If anyone can become the first man to earn the prize while playing completely outside European club football, it’s Messi, but it feels even out of his spectacular reach at this stage.

SN prediction to win men’s Ballon d’Or 2024

These awards are often weighted heavily towards international football as opposed to club performances, and with both Euro 2024 and the Copa America still to come, those two competitions will likely have a massive influence on who wins the Ballon d’Or.

Vinicius’ failure at Copa America has hurt his chances drastically and Messi has failed to light up the competition, making it unlikely either of them will win this award in 2024. 

Looking at the Euros, England are in the final, and it’s difficult to pick who has had a greater impact between Harry Kane or Jude Bellingham. 

At the end of the day, Bellingham’s club campaign makes him the best-remaining favorite, despite more heartache suffered for England in the Euros final.

Prediction: Jude Bellingham to win 2024 Ballon d’Or

When is Ballon d’Or 2024? Date, time of gala

The 2024 Ballon d’Or gala is due to be held on Monday, October 28, 2024 at the Theatre du Chatelet in Paris, France.

The ceremony is scheduled to start at 8 p.m. local time (2 p.m. ET).

Who has won the most Ballon d’Or awards: Messi leads all-time list

Below is a list of all players who have won the Ballon d’Or more than once.

A reminder, the award was also only eligible to European-born players until 1995 when that rule was changed, opening up the award to all players contracted European clubs. From 2007, any player in any league in the world could be nominated.