Poll of polls: Harris vs Trump. Where is the presidential race headed?

Although the Democratic party has found some consolidated hope in the face of Kamala Harris taking over as the new candidate, the last few months have spiced up the drama quotient in this political contest. From Trump’s conviction to all the legal drama around President Joe Biden‘s son Hunter and then the big assassination attempt targetting Trump in July. Each moment has impacted the gains and losses of either side of the competition in the polls. Here’s what the latest update entails.

Criteria for pollsters

The New York Times lists 355 different polls. However, not all are deemed as “selected pollsters” because not all tend to receive more weight in the average. The outlet clearly lays out its criteria. Pollsters that meet at least two of the three are listed as “select” one, “so long as they are conducting polls for nonpartisan sponsors.”

Also read | Trump bashes ‘Sleepy Joe’ and ‘Comrade Kamala’ for leading US to World War III: ‘Who is negotiating for…’

The laid out conditions are:

1. It must have a track record of accuracy in recent elections.
2. It must be a member of a professional polling organisation.
3. It must be conducting polls only with probability-based samples.

Some familiar names identified here are Emerson College, the University of New Hampshire, The New York Times / Siena College, Beneson Strategy Group / GS Strategy Group, Ipsos, Public Opinion Strategies, Marquette Law School, the University of North Florida, Beacon Research / Shaw & Company Research, CNN / SSRS, Suffolk University, Marist College, and others.

Kamala Harris vs Trump: How has the national polling average graph changed over the past few months?

On the Harris vs. Trump side of the debate, the Democratic presidential candidate is leading 43 polls, 4 even, and 44 led by the Republican rival—a total of 91 pollsters deemed more reliable than others.

The head-to-head averages graph how the Harris vs Trump tussle fared out after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race. The national polling average was more or less stable before the June CNN debate that pitted Biden against Trump on national TV. Even around the time of Trump’s conviction in May, the graph floated around the “Even” range.

However, after the June 27 debate, Biden’s poor performance swiftly changed its appearance. The drastic switch towards Trump was further fuelled by the assassination attempt. Support for the Republican presidential hopeful widened Trump +3 before Biden dropped out of the race on July 21. Shortly after that, Harris became the new face of the Democratic party’s 2024 election bid, and polls eventually lifted in her support, with Democrats accepting her as Trump’s new political rival.

Also read | Donald Trump has pledged to ‘veto’ a national abortion ban, says JD Vance

Although initially Biden and Trump had a close fight, with the former even occasionally taking the lead, he gradually lost his numbers. He started trailing his Republican rival in the polls. This gap significantly widened after the June presidential debate. Once he ended his campaign, he slipped down three points nationally and suffered a bigger defeat in key states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

However, the Biden vs Trump conversation is a thing of the past. The poll of polls witnessed its latest update on August 25, which comes days after Robert F Kennedy Jr suspended his independent presidential campaign, making room for his endorsement of Trump despite initially butting heads with him on the political front. The NY Times crucially noted that his decision doesn’t necessarily affect the race and the polls.

As of August 25, the national polling average map showed Harris in the lead with 49% while Trump trails close behind at 46%. On the flip side, support for RFK Jr declined dramatically (even though it was already waning). Even as he’s figured into the graph, Harris still dominates at 46%, with Trump 2% behind.

The coming month is about to see more TV drama as ABC will host a presidential debate between Republican nominee Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris on September 10.