Swing state poll: Trump’s return to Pennsylvania shakes up battleground race for Harris

The former prez’s return to Pennsylvania is a big moment for his supporters, who see it as a chance to rally the troops with Election Day just around the corner. Polls show Harris with a slight edge nationally, but in key battleground states, it’s a nail-biter, with both candidates neck and neck.

Trump makes a triumphant return to Pennsylvania

Donald Trump was greeted by a swarm of MAGA supporters who rallied in the thousands, crowding the same site where the Republican was once the target of a failed assassination attempt back in July. The response shows how he has begun gaining ground in this key battleground state.

Pennsylvania is emerging as a crucial battleground in this election, with 19 electoral votes at stake. A recent Politico report highlights that many voters are rallying around Trump, viewing his return as a triumphant comeback that could boost his supporters and campaign team in the final weeks. A local artist even created a striking 4,000-nail sculpture of Trump raising his fist, now displayed on the farm where the assassination attempt took place.

On the other hand, Vice President Harris, who currently holds a slim lead of just eight-tenths of a point in The Hill/DDHQ average, is also active in the state. Former President Obama will join her for a rally in Pittsburgh on October 10. Recent polls show the race is neck-and-neck, with at least five major surveys indicating a tie.

Trump gains grounds in Michigan

A recent poll by the Trafalgar Group shows former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris in Michigan by 2.2 percentage points. According to the survey, Trump has 46.9% support, while Harris is at 44.7%

Democrats are concerned that Trump and his running mate, JD Vance, are getting more popular in Michigan and are trying to attract a big group of voters that Harris is trying to win over.

Another poll conducted in Florida indicates that former President Donald Trump holds a slim lead of 2 percentage points over Vice President Kamala Harris. Trump garnered approximately 50% support, while Harris received around 48%.

Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Wisconsin

Trump has a slight lead in Arizona, ahead by eight-tenths of a percentage point in The Hill/DDHQ average. The state was one of the closest in 2020, with President Biden securing victory by just one-third of a point. Trump also has a narrow advantage in Georgia, where he leads by seven-tenths of a point—this state provided Biden with his narrowest win in percentage terms in the last election as well.

In contrast, Harris enjoys her largest lead in the battleground of Nevada, where she is up by exactly 2 points according to the poll. Although Trump seems to have historical momentum in North Carolina, he is facing a challenge in Wisconsin, where Harris is ahead by 1.3 percentage points according to The Hill/DDHQ. However, the reliability of polls in Wisconsin has been questionable recently.