US consumer prices rise slightly in Sep, keep hopes of rate cut alive

Despite the firmer-than-expected monthly inflation reading last month, a sharp moderation in rent increases led economists to expect a more muted rise in the main inflation measures tracked by the US central bank for its 2 per cent target.

 

“The September CPI rose more than expected, but the details do not suggest enough acceleration to sway the Fed from a 25 basis points rate cut next month,” said Will Compernolle, macro strategist at FHN Financial. “While there were some components that showed concerning acceleration, the slowdown in shelter inflation bodes well for future cool core services prices.” The consumer price index increased 0.2 per cent last month after gaining 0.2 per cent in August, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said. Food prices jumped 0.4 per cent after rising 0.1 per cent in August. Grocery store food prices increased 0.4 per cent, lifted by higher costs for meat, poultry, fish and eggs. Fruits and vegetable prices rebounded 0.9 per cent after dropping 0.2 per cent in August.

 

But consumers got some relief from gasoline prices, which plunged 4.1 per cent. Rents increased 0.3 per cent after climbing 0.4 per cent in the prior month. In the 12 months through September, the CPI rose 2.4 per cent. That was the smallest year-on-year increase since February 2021 and followed a 2.5 per cent advance in August.

 

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI edging up 0.1 per cent and rising 2.3 per cent year-on-year. The annual increase in inflation has slowed from a peak of 9.1 per cent in June 2022.

 

Inflation is a major issue for voters in next month’s presidential election. Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic Party’s nominee, is locked in a tight race with the Republican Party’s candidate Donald Trump.

 

The first rate reduction since 2020 lowered the central bank’s policy rate to the 4.75 per cent-5.00 per cent range. The Fed hiked rates by 525 basis points in 2022 and 2023.

 

US stocks opened lower. The dollar was little changed against a basket of currencies. US Treasuries were mixed.

 

WEATHER DISTORTIONS

 

Financial markets saw a roughly 87 per cent probability of a 25 basis points rate cut at the Fed’s Nov. 6-7 policy meeting, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. The odds of rates being unchanged were at about 13 per cent.

 

Investors abandoned hopes for another half-percentage point rate reduction next month against the backdrop of continued labor market resilience and solid consumer spending.

 

The economy added the most jobs in six months in September and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1 per cent from 4.2 per cent in August.

There are also some pockets of stickiness, which are slowing the pace of cooling in underlying inflation.

 

Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI increased 0.3 per cent in September after rising 0.3 per cent in August. The so-called core inflation was driven by a rebound in the prices of used cars and trucks. Healthcare costs rebounded 0.4 per cent, pushed up by a 0.9 per cent surge in the cost of doctor services.

 

Motor vehicle insurance increased 1.2 per cent, while apparel prices advanced 1.1 per cent. Airline fares cost 3.2 per cent more. But owners’ equivalent rent, a measure of the amount homeowners would pay to rent or earn from renting their property, gained 0.3 per cent after rising 0.5 per cent in August.

 

In the 12 months through September, the core CPI advanced 3.3 per cent. That followed a 3.2 per cent gain in August.

 

In a separate report, the Labor Department said initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 33,000 to a seasonally adjusted 258,000,for the week ended Oct. 5, the highest level since early August 2023.

 

The increase was the largest since July 2021. Economists had forecast 230,000 claims for the latest week.

 

Unadjusted claims soared 53,570 to 234,780 last week. They were boosted by a 9,490 jump in claims in Michigan, which has a heavy presence of Boeing suppliers.

 

Applications shot up 8,534 in North Carolina and rose 3,843 in Florida. Helene, which tore through Florida and devastated large swathes of the US Southeast in late September, is likely to continue distorting claims data in the weeks ahead.

 

The labor market’s short-term outlook is also likely to be distorted by Hurricane Milton, which barreled through Florida on Thursday, whipping up deadly tornadoes, destroying homes and knocking out power. The roughly 33,000 machinists at Boeing who walked off the job last month could negatively impact October’s employment report.

 

Economists expect Fed officials will discount any sharp decline in payrolls or rise in the unemployment rate in October.

 

The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, increased 42,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.861 million during the week ending Sept. 28, the claims report showed.

 

“Today’s data shouldn’t raise concerns as both data points remain relatively low compared to history,” said Eugenio Aleman, chief economist at Raymond James. “In the wake of recent labor strikes and natural disasters, we might see jobless claims increase further over the next few weeks.” 

First Published: Oct 10 2024 | 7:15 PM IST