Voter fraud to the ‘Trump factor’ and civic unrest: 6 ways US election night could go wrong

As ballots are counted and results trickle in, misinformation is likely to plague social media, echoing past narratives of voter fraud and election tampering. Here are five potential pitfalls that could mar the election process and disrupt democracy as we know it.

Voter fraud calls

Misinformation, false claims, and misleading allegations—fueled by the blatant use of artificial intelligence, which can make even the most outlandish false claims seem credible—are going viral online ahead of the U.S. election, reaching record highs. Individuals and various groups, including independent, Republican-affiliated organizations and in some cases even a few Democrats are gathering and sharing numerous reports of supposed voting issues.

Paul Smith from the Campaign Legal Center stated that fraud is largely a made-up problem. Speaking to USA Today he emphasised how reviews of the 2020 election and the 2022 midterms found no evidence of significant voter fraud. Despite this, former President Trump and some Republicans continued to spread false claims. After these claims came up, a bunch of states made new rules saying you need a photo ID to vote and created teams to check for any problems.

Trump had also wrongly claimed that mail-in voting leads to fraud, but mail-in voting actually includes strong security measures to prevent it.

The Trump factor

Journalist Andrew Romano identifies the ‘Trump Factor’ as the second potential issue on election night. The former president still refuses to accept his 2020 defeat to Joe Biden, having claimed long before the election that he could only lose if it were rigged. Following his loss, Trump never ceased his claims, continuously insisting on election fraud.

According to Romano, if, on November 5, key battleground states like Pennsylvania find themselves in a tight race—just as polls suggest—and initial, partial vote counts show Trump leading while Democratic-leaning mail-in ballots are still being processed, Trump is likely to declare himself the winner once again, regardless of the final results. Trump and his supporters might try to convince election officials in key states not to certify the results, even though they don’t have the power to do so.

Delays expected in final result: might take days

Polls will close at 11:00 PM EDT (04:00 GMT) in most states, with Hawaii and Alaska closing later, according to BBC. In past elections, the winner was usually announced shortly after polls closed in California, followed by a concession speech from the loser.

However, this year, experts believe it may take days to determine the winner due to a higher number of mail-in votes, which can delay counting. Each state has different rules for when they start counting these votes, so a candidate who leads early on may end up losing as all ballots are counted.

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Violence or intimidation

There are concerns about voter intimidation and possible violence on Election Day, especially if former President Trump’s campaign follows through with plans to deploy over 150,000 volunteer poll watchers. While these observers are intended to ensure fair voting, voting rights advocates worry that their presence could cross the line into unlawful intimidation, potentially deterring voters or disrupting the voting process.

“We need every able-bodied man, woman to join [the] Army for Trump’s election security operation,” Donald Trump Jr. said earlier in a video. “We need you to help us watch them. Not just on Election Day, but also during early voting and at the counting boards. President Trump is going to win. Don’t let them steal it.”

Cyberattacks

A big worry on election night is the chance of cyberattacks, which usually get worse during high-voltage events like elections. Reports indicate that hackers from countries such as Russia, China, and Iran have been highly active throughout the 2024 election cycle, targeting digital accounts linked to political campaigns, spreading misinformation, and probing election infrastructure.

Even though 98% of voters, including those in the key states, will be using paper ballots to cut down on the chance of messing with electronic votes, cyberattacks could still mess with important systems, like the ones used by the media to report on election night.

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Civic unrest

Getting ready for the November 5 election, Washington, DC is beefing up its famous spots to get ready for any possible trouble. The White House, U.S. Capitol, and where Vice President Kamala Harris lives are all now fenced off, including anti-climb barriers. These extra steps are being taken even though the city’s police chief said at a press conference that there’s no real threat and everything’s under control.

But, according to surveys, a lot of people are worried about what could happen after the election. Not too long ago, more than 30 military experts teamed up with local and state leaders at the University of Pennsylvania to play out different scenarios and figure out how to deal with any violence or trouble that might come up around the election and when power changes hands.