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‘World’s most accurate economist’ makes prediction for 2024 presidential election
Where candidates stand on the top election issues
USA Today’s Washington Bureau Chief Susan Page highlights the top voting issues and where each candidate stands on them.
French economic forecaster, who some call “the world’s most accurate economist,” Christophe Barraud predicts Donald Trump to win the 2024 presidential election.
Barraud is the chief economist and strategist at Market Securities Monaco. He was awarded the Top Forecaster of the U.S. Economy by Bloomberg 11 out of the last 12 years, according to his website. The market economist specializes in macroeconomics, and studied financial economics at Paris-Dauphine University.
In his interview with Business Insider, the forecaster predicted his three most likely scenarios, with Trump taking the presidency and Republicans taking control of the Senate and House of Representatives as the most feasible outcome. He said his other two most likely outcomes would be a win for Harris or Trump, but a split in Congress.
The economist broke down on his website why he thinks a Trump victory is the more likely outcome, stating he has been studying betting markets, polls and election modeler’s forecast.
Barraud said in his interview with Business Insider that a Trump win in the presidency and a Republican win in Congress would likely lead to Trump implementing his domestic economic policies of tax cuts to corporations, while a Trump win, but a Democrat Congress may cause Trump to focus more on foreign economic policy.
The forecaster wrote “a Trump victory is supposed to be associated with much more inflation than a Harris victory. This difference can be partly explained by his threats to implement tariffs, reduce immigration and offer tax cuts for both corporates and households.”
Barraud expects the country’s GDP to grow next year despite who wins the presidency.
His predictions reflects that of some polls that have Trump leading in a number of battleground states, but the predicted polls remain tight. Other polls such as the ones conducted by The New York Times has the candidates tied in some key battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan and Georgia as of Nov. 3.
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