What a Donald Trump victory in the US election could mean for the UK

The 2024 US presidential election is underway, as tens of millions of Americans take to polling booths across the country to cast their vote for the next US president. Polling has the two lead candidates, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, almost tied – as much of the world watches on in anticipation.

Most in the UK will be sleeping as polls begin to close across America, and may well wake up to the final result. Citizens here have made their preferences clear: 64 per cent want to see a Harris victory, according to a poll from YouGov last month, while just 18 per cent want to see Trump in office again.

The same poll also shows that 76 per cent of British voters think the winner of the US election matters “a lot,” with just 17 per cent feeling it doesn’t matter much or at all.

The UK and US have long held what is called a “special relationship,” referencing the nations’ inextricably linked past and politics.

While the policy decisions of one do not generally affect the other directly, America is an influential international partner; one which UK politicians like to keep on side.

Another four years of a Trump administration seemed unthinkable to many at the start of 2024. Criminally convicted in May and indicted in several other legal proceedings, it might have looked impossible for the former president to make a political comeback.

But that he has, and the prospect of a second Trump term – now once removed – has become a real possibility.

Labour remains neutral (on the surface)

Still less than six months after its election victory, Labour has indicated a willingness to work with either presidential candidate should they win at the upcoming election.

Prime minister Keir Starmer has worked to maintain a diplomatic neutrality, and expressing a desire to meet both. However, he has only been able to meet with Mr Trump before election night.

The new Labour PM even maintained a positive outlook when the Trump campaign accused his “far-left” party of unlawful electoral interference and support for Ms Harris. Responding to the allegations, Sir Keir said he still has a “good relationship” with the former president.

Should Mr Trump win once more, the UK can expect Labour ministers to keep up public appearances and probably congratulate the new president.

Behind the scenes, however, they will probably be wishing the result went the other way. For instance, foreign secretary David Lammy once called Mr Trump a “neo-Nazi sociopath,” although he insists he would work with him if he became president again.

Foreign policy tensions

One area of tension that could crop up between the two nations if Mr Trump wins is the western approach to Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Mr Trump’s reported closeness to Russian president Vladimir Putin has come under scrutiny in the past, while his questionable commitment to the NATO alliance has left British politicians uneasy.

He has said that he could end the war in Ukraine immediately if he wanted to, leading many to speculate that he could seek to strike a deal with Mr Putin if he secures a second term.

However, any deal that would see Ukraine giving up land would be at odds with the current UK and US response, alongside other western allies. This could potentially open up a difficult diplomatic situation for the UK down the line.

Looking to the future

Another concern for Labour politicians may arise around the optics of a Trump administration. With hardline policies on abortion, trade, climate, and guns, his views are broadly at odds with Labour members’ own.

While the UK government does not intervene in US politics, to be seen to work with Mr Trump on international matters while he implements his right-wing agenda in the US could rub some UK voters the wrong way.

Combined with Mr Trump’s close relationship with Reform UK leader Nigel Farage, this could spell trouble for Labour. The party would doubtless find much more common ground and room for joint US-UK projects under a Harris administration.

The difference may seem trivial, but it will be important and could bear serious implications. The victor of the US election will likely determine whether the UK’s relationship with the US during Labour’s first government in 14 years is good, or merely tolerable.

Labour will want to work with the new US president as best it can, and all signs would suggest ministers will find this much easier if it is Ms Harris who secures the position.