ANALYSIS | Here are 3 potential outcomes of the Trump jury deliberations | CBC News

A momentous event in American politics now rests on 12 jurors, the Manhattanites deciding the case of Donald Trump.

Those men and women, mostly white, most appearing to be in their 30s and 40s, will decide whether Trump becomes the first former U.S. president convicted of a crime.

Thursday marks their second day of deliberations on whether Trump committed felonies by falsifying business records to conceal a sex scandal. Here are three potential outcomes: 

Conviction

A guilty verdict would uncork frantic weeks of speculation about whether Trump might be imprisoned in the middle of his attempted political comeback. A sentencing decision would likely land in just over a month, perhaps around or after the Republican convention.

Several veteran criminal lawyers contacted by CBC News deem a conviction probable based on their reading of the trial.

“It’s pretty likely,” said Mark Cohen, a longtime New York City criminal lawyer, as both a prosecutor and now a defence attorney.

Another former federal prosecutor, Eugene Rossi, even put odds to it: “I think there’s a 75 to 80 per cent chance of a conviction,” he said. 

Former state prosecutor Bennett Gershman says he’s always expected a conviction, even moreso upon the strength of the prosecution’s closing arguments.

To these analysts, the prosecution has proven the key facts: that Trump paid off a porn star to cover up their fling; that he participated in a coverup of the payments; and, crucially, that he did this to influence the 2016 election and intended to violate either election-spending or tax laws.

If the jury convicts, the judge would normally deliver his sentence in six to eight weeks. And on these charges, Justice Juan Merchan has a wide range of options.

It’s a staggeringly vast gamut of potential penalties that run from less than a slap on the wrist, to a warning, to a minor punishment, to serious jail time.

Trump could receive anything from an unconditional discharge, meaning he’s free without conditions; to probation, where he could have his travel limited or be forced to undergo community service; or face prison sentences of up to four years for each of the 34 counts. 

WATCH | Deliberations begin:

Jury begins deliberations in Trump criminal trial

Jurors in Donald Trump’s criminal hush money trial have begun deliberations, weighing the evidence and testimony they have heard and seen over the last five weeks.

Few analysts expect prison time. The judge even scolded Trump’s attorney for discussing jail in his closing argument as an improper attempt to sway the jury.

“[Prison is] highly unlikely,” said New York criminal defence lawyer Julie Rendelman, noting Trump’s age, his lack of a criminal record and the charges in this case being the lowest class of non-violent felony.

Not everyone is as certain. 

Trump’s behaviour during the trial — with his frequent trashing of the judge and witnesses — has made a prison sentence more possible, says Cohen.

Before the trial, he says, he’d have assumed Trump would get probation. But judges have a responsibility in sentencing to promote respect for the law.

“And Trump’s done his best to promote disrespect for the law,” Cohen said. 

Within days of the verdict, Trump would meet with a probation officer, tasked with writing a pre-sentencing assessment. 

Cohen warns that Trump could imperil himself further in that meeting. If he keeps denying his guilt, shows no contrition or lies, that would wind up in the pre-sentencing report and be an aggravating element. 

Cohen’s advice to Trump for that meeting: staying mute is better than continuing to deny your guilt. 

An appeal would seem inevitable. In any case, the U.S. Constitution would allow Trump to keep running for president even if he were in jail – as one candidate did a century ago. 

Mistrial

This is another outcome observers deem plausible: a deadlocked jury, leading the judge to declare a mistrial. Trump’s circle is reportedly pulling for this, pinning its hopes on one juror who’s been making friendly eye contact with them throughout the trial.

“You only need one [holdout juror],” said Rossi, who puts the chances of a hung jury at about 20 per cent.

To some observers, this outcome would be more equitable than a conviction. Tim Bakken, a former prosecutor, questions the fairness of the case.

The felony charges against Trump rest, he says, on an unjustly loose application of the underlying statutes: the tax, state- and federal-level election laws Trump is accused of intending to break. 

Prosecutors have argued, and the judge has agreed, to instruct the jury that all they have to do is agree Trump intended to break one of those three laws by falsifying those records; it doesn’t matter which law, or even if jurors all settle on the same one.

“[This is] vague and broad, and thus nearly impossible to defend against,” said Bakken, now a professor at the U.S. Military Academy in West Point. 

“In fairness to accused people, such references, absent a precise definition, would not be allowed in most criminal trials.”

One former prosecutor who’s now a conservative legal commentator was even more scathing: He called the case a travesty.

There’s not the slightest shred of evidence, Andrew McCarthy wrote in the National Review, that in making those payments Trump had any awareness of the underlying laws he’s accused of trying to break. 

And he lambasted not only the judge for allowing those aforementioned instructions – but also Trump’s defence team for failing to push back.

Merchan “has aided and abetted” the prosecution, he wrote this week. “The fix is in here.” 

If one juror agrees, and refuses to convict, the case faces a mistrial. Which then raises the question of whether Trump will be tried again – and when.

Whether there’s a retrial would depend, some observers opined, on just how deadlocked the jury was. That math matters, Rendelman says.

“Is it 11-1 to convict or 11 … to acquit?” she said. Gershman concurred: If there’s just one holdout for an acquittal, he called it certain the case will be tried again.

When would that happen? Some lawyers say a retrial could start within weeks. Rendelman doesn’t expect it before the election, and suggests it may not even happen, depending on the election result.

Acquittal 

Almost no one is predicting this – a 12-0, unanimous verdict in Trump’s favour, in a city where he’s unpopular, in a case laden with unflattering details, from his infidelity, to his lying, to his habit of not paying bills.

Not even Trump is predicting an acquittal. 

“Mother Teresa could not beat these charges,” he said Wednesday, as the jury began deliberations.

“The whole thing is rigged.”

Outside the courthouse, one of his fans agreed. A 57-year-old Brooklyn construction worker, Joe Palau, was wearing a red MAGA cap and holding a U.S. flag upside-down in protest.

He’s hoping for a hung jury, at best. But whatever happens, he says, he shares another Trump prediction: that he’ll be elected president again.

“If he’s found guilty, more people will go to him. More people,” Palau said.