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Attacks by Israel, Hezbollah could fuel Mideast war. Or could they ease tensions?

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Attacks by Israel, Hezbollah could fuel Mideast war. Or could they ease tensions?

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Iran-backed Hezbollah militants and the Israeli military traded massive aerial attacks Sunday as violence along the Israeli-Lebanese border reached ominous new heights.

The attacks came as negotiators met in Cairo for talks aimed at reaching a cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hamas, also backed by Iran, amid global concerns the war in Gaza could expand into Lebanon and explode across the region.

Israel and Hezbollah, however, indicated they did not want a full-blown war in Lebanon, and some experts said Sunday’s powerful strikes could calm the rising tensions in the short term.

Iran-backed Hezbollah said its attack was in retaliation for the assassination of high-ranking Hezbollah figure Fuad Shukr. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a warning to Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, that “what we did today is another step toward changing the situation” along the Israeli-Lebanese border.

“Israel is hitting Hezbollah with surprising, crushing blows,” Netanyahu said. “Three weeks ago we eliminated its chief of staff (Shukr). Today we foiled its attack plan.”

Three deaths were confirmed in Lebanon. Israel said one member of its navy was killed and two wounded.

Developments:

∎ Videos posted to social media showed Israeli interceptor missiles being launched to counter the attack.

∎ Restrictions were ordered for civilians from Tel Aviv to the Lebanese border that limited gatherings to no more than 30 people outdoors and 300 people indoors. Beaches were also closed near the border.

Israel hits a wall in Gaza: Civilian deaths are mounting

Former Israeli Intelligence official and regional analyst Avi Melamed said statements from both sides will probably bring relative calm to the region and “an end to the anxious period of waiting for rounds of retaliatory strikes” that could have fueled an all-out war in Lebanon. Hezbollah’s strike plan and targets would have been approved by Iran, Melamed said. 

“Hezbollah’s retaliation fell short of its supporters’ expectations,” Melamed said in an email to USA TODAY. “But most of all, the strike and messaging sent a louder message to Yahya Sinwar’s Hamas that the expanded regional war Sinwar has been hoping for … isn’t likely to happen.“

Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, who served as a national security adviser under former President Donald Trump, lauded the Israeli attack. He said it kept Hezbollah from launching “thousands and thousands” of missiles at Israel.

“So (what) the Israelis have done actually is reset deterrence in the region and I think it’s smart,” Kellogg said on Fox News Sunday “And I think it’s put Hezbollah … on their back foot, and it’s clearly put the Iranians on their back foot, that they haven’t done anything at all.”

A current U.S. official, who was not authorized to speak publicly, told USA TODAY there were no signs that an attack on Israel from Iran was forthcoming.

Hezbollah said it had fired 320 Katyusha rockets toward Israel and hit 11 military targets in what it called the first phase of its retaliation − and denied that Israel had curtailed the attack. A Hezbollah official told Reuters the retaliation had been delayed because of the truce talks and other political considerations. The official said the group had calibrated the attack to avoid triggering a full-scale war.

A U.S. official said the Hezbollah attack involved no more than 100 rockets.  Israeli military spokesperson Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said more than 100 Israeli planes attacked targets across southern Lebanon.

“Our air defense systems, Navy ships and Air Force planes are protecting the country’s skies, identifying and intercepting threats and striking anywhere in Lebanon, where it is necessary to remove threats and hit Hezbollah,” he said.

The Pentagon has built a robust force in the Middle East over the last several weeks as Iran and his its proxy forces, including Hezbollah, have threatened attacks on Israel. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin III spoke with Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant to discuss Israel’s defense against the Hezbollah attacks. Austin reaffirmed the United States’ ironclad commitment to Israel’s defense against any attacks by Iran and its regional partners and proxies, Pentagon press secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said.

President Joe Biden was being updated on events by national security adviser Jake Sullivan, the White House said.

The Cairo talks are centered around a “bridging cease-fire” proposal from the Biden administration that in recent weeks had mediators hopeful that a deal could be reached. Mehran Kamrava, a professor of government at Georgetown University in Qatar, is skeptical.

“A bridging cease-fire deal appears to be more diplomatic speak and largely void of substance,” Kamrava said in an email to USA TODAY, adding that the Biden administration is “keen to have a cease-fire deal, not so much out of concern for the plight of Palestinians but due to domestic political considerations.”

Iran prepping attack on Israel: Response to Hamas leader’s assassination in Tehran

Expectations of an escalation had risen since a missile strike in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights last month killed 12 young people and the assassination of Shukr in Beirut that followed. Israel’s security Cabinet met early Sunday, and Gallant declared a state of emergency.

Foreign Minister Israel Katz said Israel would respond to developments on the ground but did not seek a full-scale ware in Lebanon. Tens of thousands of Israeli residents have been evacuated from the Israeli side of the Lebanese border for months because of the uptick in violence.

“We are determined to do everything possible to defend our country, to return the residents of the north safely to their homes and to continue to uphold a simple rule: Whoever harms us – we harm him,” Netanyahu said.

Tensions high in Mideast: Fears of Iranian attack on Israel keep countries on edge

Flights to and from Ben Gurion airport in Tel Aviv were suspended for around 90 minutes. Some flights to and from Beirut were also halted, stranding passengers. “I just want to get out of here by any means possible,” said Rana Saade, a Lebanese woman living in New Jersey.

Contributing: Tom Vanden Brook, Francesca Chambers, USA TODAY; Reuters

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