Bond futures fall, dollar firm as markets grapple with US politics

US bond futures slipped and the dollar firmed on Monday as investors wagered the attack on US presidential candidate Donald Trump made his victory more likely, while injecting a whole new level of political uncertainty into markets.

A holiday in Japan made for thin trading conditions and the early action was confined to a modest rise in the dollar while Treasury futures slipped.

Investors have tended to react to the prospect of a Trump win by pushing Treasury yields higher, in part on the assumption his economic policies would add to inflation and debt.

Proposals to levy tariffs on imports would push prices higher while eating into consumer spending power. Meanwhile, restrictions on migration could tighten the labour market and put upward pressure on wages.

“The market reaction function to a Trump presidency has been characterized by a stronger US dollar and a steepening of the US Treasuries curve, so we might observe some of that this coming week if his election odds are assessed to have further improved following this incident,” said Rong Ren Goh, a portfolio manager at Eastspring investments in Singapore.

Online betting site PredictIT has a Republican win at 66 cents, from 60 cents on Friday, with the Democrats at 38 cents. The current odds indicate that Republicans are twice as likely to win the election as Democrats.

The dollar edged up 0.3 per cent on the Japanese yen to 158.05 but remained well short of its recent 161.96 top following a bout of suspected intervention.

The euro eased slightly to $1.0887, and the dollar index firmed a shade to 104.26.

Futures for 10-year Treasuries slipped 13 ticks, while cash bonds were untraded due to the Japanese holiday.

S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were both marginally higher.

Japan’s Nikkei was shut, but futures were trading at 41,285 compared to a cash close of 41,190.

China data misses

Disappointing data began a busy week in China, where a once-in-five-year gathering of top officials runs from July 15-18.

Second-quarter growth in the world’s second-largest economy was 4.7 per cent higher than a year earlier, against forecasts for 5.1 per cent, and retail sales growth was a sluggish 2 per cent annualised in June, against expectations of 3.3 per cent, keeping pressure on Beijing to come up with support measures.

New home prices dropped at their fastest pace in nine years.

The yuan was under pressure at 7.2608 per dollar and mainland stocks slipped and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was last down 1 per cent. [.SS]

Later this week, the United States will release data on retail sales, industrial production, housing starts and weekly jobless claims.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will appear later on Monday and is bound to be asked for his reaction to last week’s subdued inflation reading.

Markets are pricing in a 94 per cent chance the Fed will cut rates in September, up from 72 per cent a week earlier.

The European Central Bank meets on Thursday and is considered certain to hold rates at 3.75 per cent, ahead of another cut seen likely in September.

Among the host of companies reporting earnings this week are Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Netflix and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing.

In commodity markets, gold held at $2,408 an ounce, just off last week’s top of $2,424. [GOL/]

Oil prices inched up, having fallen on Friday amid signs of progress on a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. [O/R]

Brent gained 8 cents to $85.11 a barrel, while US crude rose 8 cents to $82.29 per barrel.

First Published: Jul 15 2024 | 8:40 AM IST