Can Kamala Harris beat Donald Trump? Latest poll updates from the 2024 election

In less than 48 days, Vice President Kamala Harris will go head-to-head with Donald Trump as Americans cast their votes in the 2024 election.

For the first time in over three years, the average of Kamala Harris’s favorability in the polls is at a neutral rather than negative position; while Trump, VP candidate Vance, and even incumbent President Joe Biden continue to suffer an overall unfavorable perception.

As Trump reels from a second assassination attempt, this time at his own West Palm Beach golf club, the candidates are preparing for an intense final stretch of the campaign, with the needle ready to swing either way.

Yet polls following last week’s presidential debate show that while Harris “won,” neither candidate saw a real boost or loss in support; and Trump still holds public trust on key issues.

So how will Harris and Trump fare in November?

Harris has a 2.9-point lead over Trump in the latest average of national polls, collated by FiveThirtyEight. On average, Harris has been marginally ahead of Trump in national polls.

Most notably, the vice president has suffered overall negative favorability ratings since July 2021, which is not uncommon for those holding public office.

However, for the first time in over three years, Harris’s positive and negative favorability ratings are equal, according to the average of all favorability polls collated by FiveThirtyEight.

The debate may have been Harris’s chance to turn around her public perception, and ultimately foster a more favorable opinion of herself and her campaign.

The same cannot be said of Trump, whose net favorability is at a -9.9 negative rating, and has been negative since the last election. JD Vance also entered the race with a negative rating, which has only grown with time, now at -10.7 per cent on average.

Democratic running mate Walz is the only candidate who entered the race with a positive rating and has kept it, with an average favorability rating of +3.9 according to FiveThirtyEight.

However, incumbent President Joe Biden has also suffered negative ratings since September 2021; and has the lowest favorability on average, at -14.6 per cent.

Trust in Trump or Harris?

On major issues, trust for Harris and Trump is split down the line.

The same ABC News poll shows that Americans believe Trump will better handle the economy, inflation and immigration, while Harris is more trusted on healthcare, gun violence, and abortion, among other issues.

The economy remains the most important factor for many voters, with an Independent analysis showing that economic issues are pivotal for independent voters in many key states.

As we near the one-year mark of the October 7 Hamas terror attack on Israel, Americans say they are more confident (+6 per cent) in Trump’s ability to handle the Israel-Hamas war; though only half of Americans view the war as important to their vote.

The debate

All polls so far suggest that Harris won the debate in the eyes of voters, and a longtime Republican pollster has warned that this spells doom for Trump.

Perhaps most significantly, half of independent voters believe Harris won the debate, according to a Reuters poll. This is a significant 180 from June’s Biden-Trump faceoff when 62 per cent viewed Trump as the winner.

Meanwhile, a third (31 per cent) of Republicans said that neither candidate won the debate; compared to just 6 per cent of Democrats, and a quarter of voters overall (24 per cent).

The debate certainly knocked some confidence from Republicans. However, whether this will have any impact on their voting choice, remains to be seen.

Make sense of the US election with The Independent’s experts in our exclusive virtual event ‘Harris vs. Trump: who will make history?’ Reserve your space here.

Where do they stand?

CNN’s snap poll following the first Trump-Harris debate shows that Harris managed to turn the tide with some voters. 

In the wake of the debate, more voters now believe Harris better understands the issues of people like them (44 per cent) compared to Trump (40 per cent). Before the debate, the opposite was true.

Another poll earlier this week (pre-debate) from The New York Times/Siena College found that former president Trump was leading Harris overall by a slim +1-point margin, at 48 per cent to 47 per cent.

This same poll showed that nearly a third of voters (28 per cent) felt they needed to learn more about Harris, compared to 9 per cent who would say the same about Trump.

Though it is too soon to say, the candidates’ debate performances may have turned this around.

State-by-state

The pre-debate Morning Consult poll shows substantial variation in presidential support among 14 states, with Trump and Harris tied in Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina.

Each state tells a different story, however. A new set of polls from Morning Consult surveyed voters in 14 states up to September 8, finding that Harris has the strongest lead in Maryland, with a +32 point margin. For Trump, his strongest lead is in Texas, at +8 points over Harris.

The two candidates are tied in Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina, while Trump has only a +2 point lead in Florida, smaller than in most polls in recent months.

Trump also leads by +2 points in Arizona, a state that has voted Republican in every presidential election since the 1950s – except 2020, when Biden won the state by 0.3 per cent.

Independents

In particular, our analysis of the above Morning Consult poll shows that independent voters in Texas and Florida are leaning towards Harris, despite both states being Trump strongholds.

In a pivotal shift, Harris also leads Trump by +7.7 per cent among independent voters, according to a new poll from Emerson College (up to September 4).

Capturing the independent vote will be crucial for either Harris or Trump to take the lead in this election. This is also the most likely group to vote for a third-party candidate, though with RFK Jr out of the race, this has dwindled to just 4 per cent of independents.

The nationwide Emerson College poll has 49.5 per cent of independents saying they would vote for Harris, compared to 41.8 per cent for Trump.

This is a substantial jump from the same poll one month ago, which showed Harris just inching ahead of Trump (46 per cent to 45 per cent) among independent voters.

However, 5 per cent of independent voters say they are still undecided, and the elusive voter group is difficult to pin down, with higher variation between polls and regions than other demographics. Nonetheless, Harris can be credited with mobilizing the non-partisan voter base, whose support is much stronger since Biden dropped out.

Demographics 

An Activote poll shows that Trump’s key supporters remain male voters, those 65+, and white voters with no college education. However, Harris and Trump are tied in the 50-64 age group in this poll, which previously leaned toward Trump.

Harris polls best with young voters, female voters, and Black voters, among whom Harris has a +52 point lead.

Meanwhile, Trump has a +6 point lead with Latino voters.

While Trump is taking home rural voters, at 63 per cent, Harris leads among both urban-resident (58 per cent) and suburban voters (56 per cent).

Suburban voters chose Trump over Hilary Clinton in 2016, while in 2020, Biden flipped the lead for Democrats.