Mr Lichtman has accurately predicted nine out of the past ten US presidential polls.
Allan Lichtman, often dubbed the “Nostradamus” of US Presidential Polls, has accurately predicted the outcome of nine of the last 10 presidential elections. Now, the expert has given his final verdict about the 2024 race. On Thursday, Mr Lichtman predicted that Kamala Harris would win the White House in November’s poll. In a video for the New York Times, he said that the US vice president, who became the Democratic party’s nominee after Joe Biden withdrew in July, would defeat former US President Donald Trump on November 5 and keep the White House in Democratic hands.
“The Democrats will hold on to the White House, and Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States – at least, that’s my prediction for this race,” Mr Lichtman said in the video, per The Guardian.
The 77-year-old explained that he based his prediction on a historical index model he dubs the “Keys to the White House”. This unique system analyses the political landscape through the lens of 13 true-false statements focused on the incumbent president’s party. If six or more of the statements are false, then the challenger – in this case, Mr Trump – is predicted to win.
According to him, Ms Harris has the advantage in eight “keys” while Mr Trump has three.
The 13 keys to the White House as designed by Mr Lichtman are as follows:
- Party Mandate: Post-midterm elections, the incumbent party secures more US House of Representatives seats than in the previous midterms.
- Nomination Contest: There’s no significant challenge to the incumbent party’s nomination.
- Incumbency: The sitting president represents the incumbent party.
- Third-party Factor: There’s no noteworthy third-party or independent campaign.
- Short-term Economic Stability: The economy doesn’t face recession during the election period.
- Long-term Economic Growth: Real per capita economic growth equals or surpasses the average growth of the preceding two terms.
- Policy Shift: The incumbent administration enacts major alterations in national policy.
- Social Stability: There’s no prolonged social unrest throughout the term.
- Scandal-Free: The incumbent administration remains free from major scandals.
- Foreign/Military Mishaps: No significant failures occur in foreign or military affairs under the incumbent administration.
- Foreign/Military Triumphs: The incumbent administration achieves significant successes in foreign or military matters.
- Incumbent Charm: The incumbent party’s candidate possesses charisma or enjoys national hero status.
- Challenger Appeal: The opposing party’s candidate lacks charisma or national hero status.
Mr Lichtman explained that Mr Harris gained from the absence of a strong third-party candidate following the demise of Robert F Kennedy Jr’s independent campaign, positive short- and long-term economic indicators, major legislative achievements enacted by the Biden administration, and the absence of social unrest or scandal attached to the White House. According to the expert, Ms Harris was also favoured in not having to undergo a party nomination battle to succeed Mr Biden, as other candidates quickly lined up to endorse her before last month’s Democratic national convention.
“But even if both foreign policy keys flipped false, that would mean that there were only five negative keys, which would not be enough for Donald Trump to regain the White House,” Mr Lichtman said in the video.
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This leaves Kamala Harris winning the White House, the expert continued. “At least that’s my prediction for this race, but the outcome is up to you, so get out and vote,” he said.
Notably, Mr Lichtman has been forecasting the results of US presidential elections since 1984 and claims to have accurately predicted all but one – George W Bush’s contested triumph over Al Gore in 2000. The expert also correctly predicted that Donald Trump would win the 2016 election over Democrat Hillary Clinton. He even forecasted that Mr Trump would be impeached during his presidency – which he was, twice.
