Harris vs Trump: Who’s winning the US presidential race? Here’s what polls indicate before high-octane debate

The key question is will it be a second term for Donald Trump or Harris would become America’s first female president.

All eyes will be on Harris and Trump when they will square off in their first presidential debate today.

Prior to Biden’s decision to withdraw from the contest, polls continuously favoured Trump. Numerous surveys at the time suggested Harris wouldn’t do much better. However, as she started the campaign trail, the race became more competitive, and she went on to have a little advantage over her opponent in the average of national surveys.

According to a number of polls taken before Tuesday night’s battle, there is a tight contest between the two presidential contenders.

A look at what the latest polls say

New York Times/Sienna College poll

The most recent New York Time/Sienna College poll, which was released on Sunday, shows that Trump is leading Harris 48%–47%. 1,695 registered voters were questioned for the survey between September 3 and September 6. However, it’s crucial to note that the margin of sampling error for the poll is plus or minus 2.8 percentage points, which is greater than the gap between the two contenders.

According to the poll, the voters still feel that they need to learn more about Harris. While just 9% of prospective voters in the poll think this way about Trump, 28% said they wanted more information about the Democratic nominee.

Washington Post poll

The Washington Post poll shows Harris is ahead in three of the seven battleground states that will most likely decide the election’s outcome. She leads in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, while Trump is ahead by a slim margin in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.

The Washington Post’s election data incorporates state and national surveys that take into account each state’s last two presidential election results in order to determine the candidate that voters support.

Emerson College poll

Harris leads Donald Trump by a narrow margin of 49% to 47%, as per Emerson College survey. While three percent of voters are uncertain, one percent want to vote for a different candidate, the poll says.

Morning Consult poll

According to the results of their daily monitoring survey among potential voters, Harris edges Trump 49% to 46% in a new poll by business intelligence firm Morning Consult.

FiveThirtyEight poll

Harris is leading Trump by a narrow margin in a nationwide poll released on Monday, according to the most recent survey from FiveThirtyEight, a website that specializes in political, economic, and polling analysis. Harris edges Trump 47.1% to 44.3%.

YouGov poll

According to a YouGov survey released on Sunday, Harris surpasses Trump by a slight margin in Michigan (50%–49%) and Wisconsin (51%–49), but the two candidates are deadlocked in Pennsylvania.

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Harris vs Trump: Who is winning in swing states?

Trump turned Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, the strongholds of Democratic party, red in 2016 on his way to becoming president. In 2020, Biden overtook them again; if Harris can succeed in doing the same this year, the victory will be in her hands.

The day Biden withdrew from the campaign, he was slipping behind Trump in these seven battleground states by an average of almost five percentage points, indicating how the race has evolved since Harris emerged as the Democratic contender.

Harris vs Trump: Can voters trust the polls?

As of now, surveys indicate that Trump and Harris are tied nationwide and in battleground states by a few percentage points. In a contest that close, it is extremely difficult to determine the winner.

Surveys underrated Trump’s support in both the 2016 and 2020 elections. Polling firms will be attempting to address this issue in a number of ways, one of which will be to ensure that their findings accurately represent the demographics of those who cast ballots.