Kamala Harris, Donald Trump mark first anniversary of October 7 Hamas attack with Mideast still aflame

The shocking attack – and subsequent, punishing campaign by Israel in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip – has polarized voters and fanned concerns of a broader regional conflict that could further endanger the US and its interests. Navigating the increasingly complex dynamics has proved one of the toughest tasks for Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, and former President Donald Trump, her Republican opponent.

On Monday, both are expected to mark the anniversary of the attacks last year by Hamas militants, who killed 1,200 people and kidnapped 250 others in what Israeli leaders said was the worst slaughter of Jews since the Holocaust.

Trump will attend a memorial service with Jewish community leaders at one of his hotels in Miami, while Harris will plant a pomegranate tree on the grounds of her official residence in Washington in memory of those killed in the Hamas attack and reaffirm her commitment to Israel’s security.

In excerpts from a CBS News 60 Minutes special airing Monday evening, Harris also said the US will keep pressing Israel for a deal with Hamas that leads to a cease-fire and the release of hostages the group took during the attack. Biden will join a rabbi for a commemorative candle-lighting at the White House on Monday.

Commemorations of the original attack — which sparked an Israeli invasion of Gaza that has now killed around 42,000 Palestinians — come as the Middle East teeters on the brink of regional war.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon is fueling a risky new confrontation with Iran that US officials worry may spiral out of control. Israeli troops re-entered northern Gaza over the weekend, underscoring the complexity of defeating Hamas.

But in the US, the events of Oct. 7 have also cast a long shadow over the presidential race — and it has not fallen evenly, with developments mostly hurting Democrats.

While Biden first won praise for his staunch support of Israel in the wake of the attacks, the administration’s inability to influence Israel’s military campaign as the death toll rose in Gaza prompted large-scale protests, campus unrest and intense criticism from both progressive Democrats and Arab-Americans.

Biden’s ardently pro-Israel tilt has continued under Harris, who some progressives hoped would turn up the pressure on Israel — including potentially halting weapons shipments — after some of her earlier remarks highlighted the human toll in Gaza.

But the vice president’s campaign angered some progressive Democrats when the Democratic National Convention didn’t acquiesce to a request from delegates representing primary protest voters to have a Palestinian-American address the crowd in Chicago.

“The fact that it’s a political liability to acknowledge the humanity of Arabs is just really, really jarring for people, and I don’t think the Kamala Harris campaign people really appreciate that,” said Khaled Elgindy, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington.

“Because, frankly, everyday that this war continues, it expands — and every day that it expands, it hurts Kamala Harris,” he said.

Michigan Risk

The expansion of the conflict to Lebanon only makes that worse. On Friday, the State Department acknowledged that Kamel Jawad, a US citizen, had died in Lebanon as a result of Israel’s bombing.

The biggest risk for Harris and the Democrats is in Michigan, a swing state that has the highest percentage of Arab-Americans and where Palestinian suffering is a potent political issue. Members of Jawad’s family led protests in Dearborn last week following news of his death.

While Trump, who tried to ban immigration from Muslim nations, may not be a natural choice for some Arab-Americans, some have threatened to spoil their ballots or stay home.

“Clearly, the trends in the Middle East will lead people to either sit out the election, or vote for Donald Trump,” said Pete Hoekstra, Michigan chair of the GOP. “We have been making small inroads into those groups over the years, and there is no enthusiasm for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris and what they have done.”

On Friday, Harris met with Arab American leaders while in Flint, Michigan, for a campaign event, in hopes of addressing their concerns.

Trump has sought to exploit the divisions among Democrats, but with rhetoric that itself has drawn condemnation. Last month, Trump said Jewish voters “would have a lot to do with a loss” in the election and complained he had not “been treated right” because polls showed Jewish American voters favored his opponent, despite his support for Israel.

“It’s only because of the Democrat hold, or curse, on you,” Trump said, before saying Israel itself should help him defeat Harris.

Doug Emhoff, Harris’ husband and a Jewish American, seized on the remarks, saying Trump had “once again fanned the flames of antisemitism by trafficking in tropes blaming and scapegoating Jews.”

Still, Trump’s narrative that blames much of the world’s chaos on weak US leadership under Biden has resonated with voters and helped to keep the race competitive.

Netanyahu Tension

While Biden administration officials tried and failed to secure a cease-fire in Gaza, they also saw their recent attempt to broach a cease-fire with Hezbollah flatly ignored by Netanyahu, who ordered a strike that killed the group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and then launched a ground invasion of Lebanon that US officials had argued against.

The GOP also argues that Trump’s hardline approach — which included withdrawing the US from the Iran nuclear deal — kept Iran from funding terror abroad, even as the Trump administration delivered the Abraham Accords that normalized ties between Israel and some Arab states.

“Since the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, we have witnessed nothing but global chaos, as evidenced by Iran’s horrific missile attack on Israel just this past week,” the Trump campaign wrote, announcing their Oct. 7 remembrance event. “The inept and failed policies of the Harris-Biden Administration have enabled the Iranian-backed proxies that have sewn a path of death and destruction, resulting in catastrophic global ramifications.”