Kamala Harris’ victory best for US economy rather than Trump’s: Goldman Sachs

The financial firm believes that a Republican sweep in Congress alongside a victory for former President Donald Trump would result in reduced economic growth next year due to Trump’s promises to take a tougher stance on immigration and raise tariffs on imports from countries like China.

Goldman analysts estimate that “if Trump wins in a sweep or with divided government, the hit to growth from tariffs and tighter immigration policy would outweigh the positive fiscal impulse.”

They also noted that “If Democrats sweep, new spending and expanded middle-income tax credits would slightly more than offset lower investment due to high corporate tax rates, resulting in a very slight boost to [gross domestic product] growth.”

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Goldman Sachs predicts Harris presidency to create 10,000 more jobs per month

Harris’s economic plan aims to support working families through policies such as restoring the expanded Child Tax Credit and introducing a new tax credit of $6,000 for low- to middle-income families with newborn children. She has also pledged to reduce costs for prescription drugs, groceries, and address Wall Street’s growing presence in the housing market.

Goldman also predicts that under a Harris presidency, job growth would be 10,000 jobs per month higher than under a Trump presidency with divided government, and 30,000 jobs higher than under a complete Republican takeover. Immigration would contribute more significantly to the labor force under Harris’s leadership, as her administration would still slow immigration but at a much weaker pace than Trump’s potential policies.

Trump’s economic platform includes a proposed 10% tariff on all imported goods, a move he argues would protect American jobs and generate revenue to extend his 2017 tax cuts.

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Many analysts believe that Trump will soon reimpose tariffs on imports from China as well as tariffs on automobiles, with Chinese electric vehicles to be hit with a 100% increase in tariffs due to an order from President Joe Biden that expanded on Trump’s tariff plans. He has called for even higher tariffs on Chinese products, which some suggested can even be as high as 50 percent or more.

Trump’s proposed economic policies are expected to increase the federal deficit by $5.8 trillion over the next decade, nearly five times more than Harris’s proposals, which would add $1.2 trillion, according to studies from the University of Pennsylvania’s Penn Wharton Budget Model.