Kamala or Trump? ‘Prediction Professor’ gives name of next US president

Lichtman, known for correctly forecasting Donald Trump‘s victory in 2016 and Joe Biden‘s win in 2020, bases his predictions on a formula he developed called the “Keys to the White House.”

What is the ‘Keys to the White House’?

The “Keys to the White House” consists of 13 true-or-false questions designed to assess the candidates’ strengths and weaknesses. If a candidate secures six or more “keys,” they are predicted to win the election.

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The 13 keys to the White House are:

• Party mandate
• Contest
• Incumbency
• Third party
• Short-term economy
• Long-term economy
• Policy change
• Social unrest
• Scandal
• Foreign/military failure
• Foreign/military success
• Incumbent charisma
• Challenger charisma

At the start of the 2024 election year, the Democrats were automatically granted one “key” due to President Biden’s incumbency. However, much has changed politically since the times of forming that agreement. Should we go by the latest assessment by Lichtman, the front-runner in the Democratic party, Kamala Harris, currently holds the six keys out of the thirteen. These include pertaining to the primary contest, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, no scandal, and no challenger charisma.

Lichtman told News Nation that “a lot would have to go wrong for Harris to lose.”

On the other hand, the Republicans hold three keys: winning the House majority in the 2022 midterms, the current incumbent not seeking re-election, and the current incumbent lacking charisma.

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There are still four keys yet to be determined: the third party factor, which is significant due to Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s presence in the race, as well as keys for social unrest, foreign military failure, and foreign military success.

Lichtman points out that, according to his formula, the Democrats would be projected to lose if they lose three more keys.