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Putin, Ukraine, long-range missiles and why there’s talk about WWIII
What does Biden’s policy change mean for the war in Ukraine?
President Biden lifted a ban on Ukraine using U.S.-provided long range missiles on Russia. What will that mean going forward for the war?
Some of us have been talking about the possibility of World War III.
And “some of us” in this context mainly means political figures who’ve been using that dark, saber-rattling language amid a potential shift in U.S. policy on Russia and Ukraine, and on the war between Israel and Hamas and Hezbollah.
In recent days there’s also been some real changes to President Joe Biden’s Ukraine policy, which has amplified those perennial discussions about another world war. But here’s why there’s talk of WWIII now.
Trump and his allies keep mentioning it. Biden, too, though less often
In his first term as president, U.S. and foreign officials and political scientists expressed private and public concerns that Trump, considered at the time an inexperienced and mercurial leader, would inadvertently start World War III − with Iran, China, North Korea or some other American adversary that is either nuclear armed or soon to be.
On the campaign trail, and since his election victory, it’s been Trump and his allies who have sometimes played fast and loose with evoking the specter of WWIII by using such language.
“It truly breaks my heart to see Crooked Joe − the weakest and most incompetent president in history − ruin our country as he pushes America to the brink of World War III,” Trump said in a recent fundraising email.
Trump has signaled he wants Ukraine and Russia to sit down for peace talks. In fact, he’s said he’ll end the war in Ukraine “in a day,” though he hasn’t specified how and neither Russia nor Ukraine have committed to talks.
Biden, too, has used the phrase.
“We’re trying to avoid World War III,” he said last year, referring to the war in Ukraine.
Biden to Ukraine: You can strike inside Russia now, with long-range missiles
Still, much of the increased World War III rhetoric in recent days can be attributed to specific moves made by the Biden administration. Ukrainian officials have been pleading with the White House for months to let them use U.S.-supplied, long-range ballistic missiles, known as ATACMS, by Ukraine for strikes inside Russia.
Biden officials feared that letting Ukraine use these weapons risked further entrenching the U.S. in the war, or, perhaps worse, could prompt a devastating strike by Russia against Ukraine with a nuclear weapon.
After Biden over the weekend authorized their use, Donald Trump Jr., the president-elect’s son, wrote on X: “The Military Industrial Complex seems to want to make sure they get World War 3 going before my father has a chance to create peace and save lives. Gotta lock in those $Trillions. Life be damned!!! Imbeciles!”
Rep. Michael Waltz, R-Fla., Trump’s incoming national security adviser, said on Fox News: “This is another step up the escalation ladder, and no one knows where this is going.”
The Kremlin: the nuclear saber-rattler’s saber-rattler
Russian President Vladimir Putin is never one to miss an opportunity to make provocative statements and take well-timed actions that raise the blood pressure of officials in western capitals.
How much is propaganda or bluster or disinformation is hard to say with any certainty.
However, in the wake of Biden’s long-range missiles authorization, and moves by governments in Britain and France to allow Ukraine to use similar weapons made by those nations, Russia announced it was fine-tuning its nuclear doctrine.
Now, Moscow announced, it would consider aggression from any non-nuclear state – in other words, Ukraine – but with the participation of a nuclear country – read, the U.S. – a joint attack on Russia.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said the changes mean that Russia “reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in the event of aggression using conventional weapons against it and/or the Republic of Belarus.”
Ukraine used these long-range missiles on Tuesday. A day later, in response, Russia launched a medium-range ballistic missile at a target in Ukraine. The missile Russia launched against Ukraine was a rare, experimental intermediate-range ballistic missile according to a U.S. official.
Russia may have fired it to intimidate Ukraine and its supporters, according to the official who was not authorized to speak publicly. However, the weapon is not viewed pivotal to Russia’s war aims. U.S. officials briefed Ukraine and close allies prior to its launch to help them prepare.
By Thursday, Putin was giving a national address, saying the conflict had acquired elements of a “global nature.”
As a reporter once wrote: “Surely even Vladimir Putin – destructive, isolated, determined to restore his version of Russia’s greatness – wouldn’t use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, right?”
The short answer is, like so many things with Putin, we don’t know – probably not. More on that here.
Contributing: Tom Vanden Brook
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