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Swing states poll of polls: Harris clings to razor-thin leads as Trump rallies in battleground blitz

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3 months ago

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Swing states poll of polls: Harris clings to razor-thin leads as Trump rallies in battleground blitz

With less than a month remaining before the United States heads to the polls, the intensely tight contest between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is becoming even more thrilling. The outcome won’t be decided by the popular vote alone; even if either candidate secures a majority, their path to the White House will depend on the Electoral College.

A boy points to US Presidential election electoral map at the American Presidential Experience exhibit(AFP)

The unique U.S. election process grants Electoral College the power to determine the winner. Each state is assigned a specific number of electoral votes, giving pivotal swing states the crucial role of potential kingmakers.

This year, there are seven swing states — and each features a razor-edge race within 1.5 points, according to Financial Times poll tracking. Together they add upto 93 of the Electoral College’s 538 votes and 18 per cent of the population. But they are the target of all Trump’s and Harris’s campaign money and energy.

Polls are clearly tilted in Kamala Harris’ favour, as she leads in 4 out of 7 swing states, which could give her an advantage of 50 electoral votes. However, her lead margins remain razor-thin in key battlegrounds.

 

Financial Times poll tracking: Kamala leading in four out of seven swing states
Financial Times poll tracking: Kamala leading in four out of seven swing states

Swing States poll of polls

On Friday, just ahead of Trump’s historic rally in Butler, Harris held a slight edge in Pennsylvania with 48.5% support, while Trump was close behind at 47.9%. With 19 electoral votes, Pennsylvania is crucial for securing an Electoral College majority.

Wisconsin has also emerged as a battleground, where Harris holds a narrow 0.6% lead at 48.5% compared to Trump’s 47.9%. Meanwhile, in Arizona, she is trailing by 1%, with 47.6% against Trump’s 48.6%.

North Carolina and Georgia, still dealing with the aftermath of Hurricane Helene, seem dissatisfied with the Democrats and are leaning toward Trump. With 16 electoral votes each, both states are expected to go red, with Trump leading by over 1%. North Carolina, typically leaning toward one party, has proven unpredictable this cycle, as both candidates compete for the remaining undecided voters.

Nevada tells a different story. With 6 electoral votes, the state remains blue, currently showing Harris with 48.4% support to Trump’s 47.3%.

Finally, Michigan remains highly competitive, with Harris holding a 1.5% advantage over Trump, standing at 48.8%. As a state that has historically played a pivotal role in national elections, Michigan could once again be a decisive factor in the outcome.

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