By Marc Jones
LONDON (Reuters) – Equity markets were locked in a multitrillion-dollar tailspin on Thursday as a slump in global tech stocks sent investors fleeing to traditional safe havens like bonds, the yen and Swiss franc.
Wall Street futures were back in the red and Europe’s main bourses were more than 1% lower as both there, and in Asia, traders reacted to Wednesday’s worst day for the Nasdaq since 2022, after underwhelming earnings from Alphabet and Tesla. [.N]
Chinese stocks, iron ore and oil prices all dropped too after China’s central bank sprang a surprise cut in longer-term interest rates, only stoking further worries about the world’s second-largest economy.
The sell-off in world stocks, which now amounts to over $3 trillion dollars over the last six sessions, saw investors ramp up bets on rate cuts globally, with futures implying a 100% chance of a Federal Reserve easing in September.
A spike in market volatility fuelled a vicious squeeze on carry trades which saw the U.S. dollar sink another 0.7% to 152.25 yen on Thursday.
MSCI’s broadest index of world stocks lost 0.5%, while Japan’s Nikkei tumbled 3.3%, exacerbated by an 11% plunge in Nissan Motor after its quarterly profit slumped 99%.
Taiwan’s markets were closed for a second day due to a typhoon.
Chinese blue-chips slid 0.6% to a five-month low. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng plunged 1.7%, finding little support from Beijing’s latest easing step.
On Wall Street, futures were down around 0.2% after the Nasdaq lost almost 4% in Wednesday’s rout, as lacklustre Alphabet and Tesla earnings undermined investor confidence in the already lofty valuations of the “Magnificent Seven” stocks. [.N]
That added to recent market volatility, with Wall Street’s fear gauge jumping to a three-month high. Investors looked for the safety of cash and super-liquid short term debt, with key U.S. and European two-year yields and hitting their lowest in almost six months. [GVD/EUR]
“There are a multitude of drivers at the moment, especially what is going on with the stock markets” senior FX and Macro strategist at BNY Mellon in London, Geoff Yu, said
He also pointed to weakening car sales in the U.S., Europe and Japan, and China’s rates moves this week, as a clear sign of softening global consumer demand.
New data from Europe’s largest economy, Germany, showed a relapse in business confidence there which also came hot on the heels of weak euro zone business activity figures.
Money markets now fully price in 50 basis points (bps) of European Central Bank rate cuts and around a 10% chance of a third easing move by year-end.
“With the policy responses, markets will be saying bad news is bad news,” Yu added.
YEN SURGE
The other big mover was the safe-haven yen, up over 1% to the strongest level in 2-1/2 months. It surged overnight, with the upward momentum intact ahead of the Bank of Japan’s meeting next week where policymakers will debate whether or not to raise interest rates.
The Swiss franc also rose 0.5% to 0.88 per dollar, having gained 0.7% overnight.
Short-dated bonds rallied, supported by comments from former New York Fed president Dudley that the central bank should cut rates, preferably at its policy meeting next week.
The yield on two-year Treasuries fell another 3 bps to 4.3894%, having dropped 4 bps on Wednesday. Ten-year yields also eased 2 bps to 4.2622% on Thursday.
Markets are fully pricing in a quarter-point rate cut from the Fed in September, with even some chance of a 50 bp cut. For all of 2024, a total easing of 65 bps has been priced in.
“The rate cut expectations are getting very elevated the same way as they were last year,” said Andrew Lilley, chief rates strategist at Barreyjoey in Sydney.
“My worry is that the market is getting ahead of the economic data because we have seen previously that these short-term dips in inflation haven’t been sustained.”
Indeed, advance U.S. gross domestic product data is due later on Thursday and is forecast to show growth picking up to an annualised 2% in the second quarter. The closely watched Atlanta Fed GDPNow indicator points to growth of 2.6%, signalling some risk to the upside.
In commodity markets, iron ore prices fell almost 1% as China concerns weighed, copper buckled 1.2%, while oil prices were pinned near six-week lows. [O/R]
Brent futures fell 0.5% to just over $81 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped a similar amount to $77.23. Gold fell 1% to $2,373.62 an ounce. [GOL/]
(Additional Reporting by Stella Qiu and Wayne Cole in Sydney; Editing by Angus MacSwan and Mark Potter)
