Trump campaign struggles to lay a glove on surging Harris

Donald Trump’s campaign recognizes that it could lose in November if the election is decided on “vibes” and “energy”, according to people close to the former president, as Kamala Harris continues to ride waves of momentum with her newly announced running mate Tim Walz.

The concern has also started to open fractures inside Trumpworld, with some Maga allies criticizing Trump’s political advisers for running a campaign that may be too structurally deficient to stand up a ground game in swing states.

The Trump campaign has sketched out a strategy to hit back and are expected to try and cast the Harris campaign the most progressive US ticket of all time, as they aim to get the political messaging back on their records in office and away from coverage about Harris’s extraordinary enthusiasm with voters.

The Trump campaign intends to continue trying to make Harris responsible in the eyes of voters for the influx of migrants, and her role as the “border czar” allowing migrants to spread across the country in part to alleviate pressure on border states.

That ties into their other strategy of pulling a “Willie Horton” attack from the old Republican playbook, suggesting on social media and in television ads that Harris was directly responsible for any crimes some migrants committed. Horton – a convicted murderer who committed more crimes while on prison furlough – was used in a racist attack strategy by George Bush during his 1988 presidential campaign.

With Walz, the strategy for now has been to say he ushered in progressive policies as Minnesota governor, focusing on how he supported transgender medical care for children, approved sweeping climate change legislation and enshrined abortion rights into law.

The campaign has also been eager to cast Walz as falsifying his military record – he has alluded vaguely to serving in Iraq although he left the military before his unit was deployed – an attack style that Trump’s current co-campaign chief Chris LaCivita once used against decorated Vietnam veteran John Kerry in the “Swift Boat” episode.

The effort to focus on Harris and Walz’s governing records provide a window onto the Trump campaign knowing it needs to avoid a vibes-based election at all costs, the people said. The Trump campaign knows running on national mood will not work against Harris’s stunning momentum since she entered the race in the way it did with Biden.

For weeks before Biden ultimately withdrew, the principal fear inside Trump world was that Biden dropping out would give a successor massive momentum. And it was for that reason that Trump himself refrained from piling on Biden, even as top Democrats pressured him to quit the race.

The momentum premonition has turned out to be true and highly problematic for the Trump campaign as they struggle to get into news cycle. It is the first time that Trump has largely lost control of the media narrative – and with it, his ability to trash the Harris ticket – since he was indicted in 2023.

But it remains unclear whether the Trump attack lines will work, at least over the next few weeks with seemingly no end in sight for Harris’s extended honeymoon period – an important factor because the longer the honeymoon period lasts, the less time Trump has to negatively define Harris.

The Trump campaign could find August to be a washout, one of the people observed. Walz could still dominate media coverage next week, and then Harris is expected to receive an outpouring of support at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago the week after.

The week after the convention is also potentially cut short from a news cycle standpoint, as the country heads into the weekend for the Labor Day holiday.

On top of that, the attacks themselves have been less tailored than what they were with Biden and, in many ways, easily rebuttable by the Harris team.

If challenged on migrant crime, for instance, Harris is expected to pivot to saying she is an ex-prosecutor running against a convicted felon, bringing unwanted attention to Trump’s recent conviction in New York of falsifying business records to influence the 2016 election.

And if challenged on the Iraq situation, Walz could make a more painful point about Trump not serving in Vietnam on account of his bone spurs.

More broadly speaking, the other attack lines from Trump against Harris have not appeared to have the same effect as his lines had done with Biden. Trump spent some time testing out the “Cacklin’ Kamala” nickname to show her as unserious on account of her laugh, but he recently started trying “Kamabla” – a sign he was not sold on his initial option though it is not clear what the insult means.