Trump vs Harris: Fresh polls reveal battleground states’ preference that could decide winner of 2024 election

The first debate between Trump and Harris was hosted by ABC News from Philadelphia on September 10. Experts like NBC News presidential historian Michael Beschloss and former Fox News anchor Chris Wallace felt that Harris had won the debate because she kept nagging Trump, which made him stray from the subject.

According to Reuters/Ipsos, 53% of respondents who claimed to have heard at least something about the debate believed Harris won the battle, 24% saw Trump as winner and the rest of the participants chose to remain silent. The poll also revealed that a far higher percentage of Democrats (91%) believed Harris won as compared to Republicans (53%) who preferred Trump.

Meanwhile, several polls were conducted in key swing states, which hold the potential to decide the outcome of November election.

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Trump vs Harris: Here’s how swing states can shape 2024 election outcome

Trump and Harris are engaged in a fierce contest in several swing states.

Notably, a swing state has an unclear political inclination. However, previously contested states may begin to lean towards one party or another.

For instance, Florida was perceived as a swing state from the 1990s to 2020, but as more Republicans register to vote, the state is now seen as consistently red.

Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Minnesota are the states being attentively monitored this year. North Carolina is the latest to join this group of swing states.

A Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll, which was conducted from August 23–27, shows that Harris leads Trump by two points overall in the seven battleground states. Harris holds edge over Trump in six of the seven states. However, they both are tied in Arizona.

Harris has reduced Trump’s lead over Biden in Iowa from 18 points in June to four points in a Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa survey, which was conducted between September 8 and 11 by seasoned pollster Ann Selzer.

Harris is ahead of Trump by three points in Pennsylvania, perhaps the most significant of the seven major battleground states for the general election, according to a new poll that was completed exclusively following last week’s debate.

In Pennsylvania, likely voters choose Democratic contender for president Harris over Republican nominee 49%–46%, according to a USA Today/Suffolk University poll taken from September 11 to 14.

New CNN polls carried out by SSRS in each state reveal that Harris leads Trump among likely voters in Wisconsin and Michigan, while the former President leads in Arizona. The two share nearly equal shares of likely voters in Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, which is the state with the largest electoral vote prize that is widely perceived as up for grabs.

In Wisconsin, the likely voter ratio is 50% for Harris to 44% for Trump, while in Michigan, the ratio is 48% for the US VP to 43% for the GOP leader. In Arizona, Trump scored 49%, compared to Harris’ 44%. In Georgia and Nevada, the candidates are locked in at 47%, with 48% supporting Harris and 47% favoring Trump.

According to the surveys, Pennsylvania and Georgia will play a key role in each candidate’s journey to the White House. In 2020, Joe Biden won all six swing states. He won Arizona by slightly more than 10,000 votes and Georgia by little less than 12,000 votes.

Voters in these swing states primarily define Harris’ views and policies as mainstream and Trump’s as too extreme.

In each state, about half of the population (ranging from 46% to 51%) believes that Trump’s policies and beliefs are so radical that they endanger the nation, whereas roughly 4 out of 10 (ranging from 37% to 42%) feel the same way about Harris’ viewpoints.

A quick look at results of polls conducted at swing states 

Polling averages in Arizona showed Trump edging out a narrow lead of one point or less, or the two contenders basically tied.

The election is also deadlocked in Pennsylvania, where polling averages indicate a tie or Harris leading by less than 1%.

Minnesota is the only state where Harris is still comfortably ahead of Trump, with an average difference of five to eight points.

Despite the possibility of a shift in voters’ opinion in the coming weeks, these averages suggest that November’s election will be closely contested. Harris and Trump, meanwhile, have been actively campaigning in states like Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Michigan in an effort to sway the states in their favor.