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Trump’s betting market numbers against Harris tell a totally different story from polls

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2 months ago

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Trump’s betting market numbers against Harris tell a totally different story from polls

In this nail-biting election race, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are neck and neck, vying for votes in crucial battleground states, rolling out initiatives like confetti at a parade. But here’s the kicker: while polls suggest a neck-and-neck showdown, betting markets paint a different picture, giving Trump a surprisingly great edge over Harris. Polymarket has the former president strutting ahead with a 57.9% chance of victory, while Harris lags behind at 41.9%

Kamala Harris, speaks during a debate in Salt Lake City, left, and Donald Trump speaks during a debate, June 27, 2024, in Atlanta. (AP)

Trump gains lead over Harris on Polymarket

On October 15, Donald Trump’s lead over Kamala Harris reached a new record high. While the betting market is known for its constant fluctuations, the current forecast places Trump at 58% compared to Harris’s 42% (at the time of writing.)

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This forecast also mentions swing states that could play a big role in determining the election outcome. In key states, Trump is leading: in Arizona, he holds 68% of the projected vote compared to Harris’s 32%; in Georgia, he has 64% against her 36%; in Pennsylvania, Trump leads with 57% to Harris’s 43%; in Michigan, he is at 54% while Harris is at 46%; in Wisconsin, Trump has 53% compared to Harris’s 47%; and in Nevada, Harris is narrowly ahead at 51% while Trump is close behind at 49%.

However, on Tuesday, the New York Times cast its own doubts on how measures are calculated in these markets, stating that there are many questions about their accuracy.

Who is leading the Betting market?

Another popular betting site, PredictIt, showed Trump at 54% on Monday, while Harris was at 49%. Fox News pointed out that every prediction market RealClearPolitics checks out predicts Trump will win. On Betfair, Trump was at 52% and Harris at 43%, and Smarkets also had almost the same numbers, with Trump at 53% and Harris at 44%.

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Also, Betsson, Bovada, and Bwin all showed Trump as the favorite with odds of winning at 56%, 54%, and 55%, respectively, with Harris getting a 46% chance on each of these sites.

According to the NY Times, supporters argue that betting markets predict more accurate results as compared to the traditional polling systems. However, skeptics raise concerns about potential manipulation due to unusual betting patterns, including endorsements from influential figures like Elon Musk

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