US Open 2024, preview and prediction: Can Gauff, Djokovic defend their crowns? Who will be the major threats?

With US Open 2024 all set to get underway starting Monday in New York, we take a look at some of the top title contenders and major threats for each of the defending champions…

MEN’S SINGLES DRAW

Sinner, Alcaraz, Djokovic – Who has the more favourable draw?

Sinner, who heads to the Open on the back of a win in Cincinnati after a quarterfinal exit in Montreal, arguably has the toughest draw from ATP’s current Big Three. He will start his campaign against American Mackenzie McDonald, and could meet another American and no. 14 seed Tommy Paul in the fourth round, who beat him once in their last three meetings. And if the world no. 1 can make it past the opening week, three-time finalist and 2022 champion Daniil Medvedev awaits him the quarters and Alcaraz in the semis. The Russian leads 7-5 in head-to-head ties, including wins on both their last two meetings since Sinner beat Medvedev in a five-setter for the Australian Open title. Sinner also trails 4-5 against Alcaraz, which includes wins in both of their meetings this year, both of which were in the semifinals, one of which was a five-setter at the Roland Garros. However, for the 23-year-old it will be the off-field trouble, pertaining to the doping controversy, which he needs to overcome in a bid to claim the second Slam of his career.

Djokovic, who didn’t win a single ATP title in 2024 until clinching a historic gold in Paris Olympics earlier this month, has been handed a fairly tricky draw. He could face fellow Serb Laslo Djere, who took him to five sets last year, Montreal champion Alexei Popyrin in the third and one between Frances Tiafoe or Ben Shelton in the fourth.

2023 winner Alcaraz, who won both the last two Slams and stands on the verge of being the first since Rafael Nadal in 2010 and third overall to win French—Wimbledon—U.S. in the same calendar year, probably has easiest draw of the three. His first biggest threat would be in the quarters, between Hubert Hurkacz, who made the quarters in both Cincinnati and Montreal, or Alex de Minaur, who is set to play his first tournament since withdrawing from the Wimbledon quarterfinals with a hip injury.

Sumit Nagal’s chances?

Nagal is all set to make a fourth straight main draw appearance in a Grand Slam, all of which came in 2024. He started off the year with a historic show in Australian Open, where he made the second round after making his way through the qualifiers, before being handed a tricky opening draw at both Roland Garros and Wimbledon. In US Open, the world no. 72, who won his sixth career ATP Challenger title at the Heilbronn Neckarcup in June, faces Tallon Griekspoor of the Netherlands, ranked 40th in the world, and stands in Djokovic’s quarter. Their only ever encounter was in 2019, in a Challenger final at the Banja Luka where Griekspoor won in straight sets.

Prediction

Semifinal: Carlos Alcaraz beats Jannik Sinner/ Daniil Medvedev; Novak Djokovic beats Alexander Zverev

Final: Carlos Alcaraz beats Novak Djokovic

WOMEN’S SINGLES DRAW

Sabalenka, the new favourite? Can Gauff defend her crown?

After an array of near misses since defending her crown at the Australian Open, Sabalenka won her second title of the year in Cincinnati, where she has been a three-time semifinalist. And hence, in what has been a usual WTA scene over the last few years with the build-up discussions being around Iga Swiatek, Sabalenka has emerged as a favourite for the title, even ahead of the reigning US Open champion Gauff. After a semifinal exit in Washington and a quarterfinal loss on Toronto, the Belarusian did not drop a single set on the fast courts in Cincinnati, where she beat the world no. 1 in the semifinal.

2024 was predicted to be Gauff’s year after a fabulous US Open win last year, where she had defeated Sabalenka in the final. However, the American witnessed a slump this summer which began with a fourth-round exit in Wimbledon, followed by a third-round loss to silver-medallist Donna Vekic in the Paris Olympics. Things turned worse when she was drummed out of Toronto in the second round, before conceding a third-set lead to Yulia Putintseva in her Cincinnati opener.

Which of the Big Four has the better draw?

Gauff has been handed the most difficult draw could face No. 27 Elina Svitolina in the third round, fellow American Emma Navarro, who beat her at Wimbledon earlier last month, in the fourth, and reigning Wimbledon champion Barbora Krejcikova in the quarters. And if she can navigate through the tough opening week, Sabalenka will wait to avenge her loss last year with a semifinal clash on the cards. And the Belarusian could experience a smooth sailing through her quarter, where her only threat could be Madison Keys in the fourth round, and one between Zheng Qinwen or Vekic in the quarters.

2023 champion Swiatek too has a comfortable draw with Mirra Andreeva, who pushed her for three hours in Cincinnati last week, being the first possible threat with a fourth-round clash, while one between Jessica Pegula, Toronto winner and Cincinnati finalist, and Danille Collins could await in the quarters.

What about Elena Rybakina? New York hasn’t been the venue for her, with the Kazkh having never made it to the second week in New York. Moreover, health issues has remained a hindrance for the former Wimbledon champion this year. Yet she won 40 of her 49 matches in 2024, made five WTA finals and won three titles. If she remains fit, she could be a force to reckon with.

Prediction

Final: Aryna Sabalenka beats Iga Swiatek