US poll of polls: Harris gains slight edge as Trump faces setbacks post debate

According to a Guardian 10-day polling average released on September 21, Harris now holds a 2.6-point lead over Trump, 48.5% to 45.9%. This marks an improvement from her 0.9-point advantage last week and represents a noticeable shift from the near tie in early September. The shift follows the much-anticipated debate in Philadelphia on September 10, where Harris was largely seen as the winner. Trump, the Republican nominee and former president, drew criticism for focusing on crowd sizes and repeating discredited claims about immigration, moves that many believe hurt his standing.

Kamala vs Trump: state of the race trends

A New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena poll taken just after the debate showed the two candidates locked in a 47% tie, a slight improvement for Harris compared to the one-point lead Trump held before the debate.

Other polling, however, has been more encouraging for Harris. A Morning Consult survey, drawing from over 11,000 respondents, gives her a six-point lead, 51% to 45%, her largest margin since she took over the Democratic nomination from Joe Biden nearly two months ago.

The survey is supported by a separate poll from Quinnipiac, shows Harris with a six-point lead in Pennsylvania, 51% to 45%.

Moreover, the Quinnipiac poll gives Harris leads in two neighbouring battlegrounds, Michigan and Wisconsin, 5% and 1% respectively.

While the 2.6-point national lead for Harris remains within the margin of error, the latest figures show growing optimism for her campaign. However, with just over six weeks left before election day, both candidates will need to fight for every vote, especially in key swing states that could ultimately decide the election.