What’s going on inside Iran as the world awaits retaliation against Israel?

TEHRAN — As the world waits for Iran’s next step abroad, the talk inside the Islamic Republic is not just of what a retaliatory strike against Israel would mean for the Middle East, but what it would mean for the country’s economy and freedoms.

NBC News spoke to several residents of Tehran as their leaders rejected Western calls to refrain from an attack that the United States has indicated could come this week. 

“I am not the kind of person who agrees with war or attacks at all,” said Omid, an IT specialist. “In this case, Iranian leaders should consider that publicly attacking Israel to showcase military power could have significant economic and political costs for Iran, especially given the current chaotic economic situation,” said Omid, who did not want his last name used out of fear of repercussions for speaking out. 

There is no doubt that if Iran were to attack, Israel would retaliate, he said, and no one can predict what might happen next. “If Iranian leaders are determined to pursue retaliation, they should do so covertly and without leaving evidence,” added Omid, 40.

The country’s newly installed president, Masoud Pezeshkian, was elected on a reformist platform last month and is most likely mulling the potential domestic ramifications of a spiraling conflict for a nation already reeling from years of crushing sanctions, as well as crackdowns on dissent after a wave of mass demonstrations in 2022 shook the foundations of the Islamic Republic. Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh, 62, was assassinated in the Iranian capital last month after attending Pezeshkian’s inauguration. Both Iran and Hamas have accused Israel of orchestrating the killing. Israel has not commented on the matter but is widely believed to have carried out the attack. 

Iran vowed “severe punishment” for the assassination, but there remains a lot of uncertainty about when and how it could act. 

President Joe Biden suggested Tuesday that Tehran may not retaliate at all if a cease-fire deal is reached to end the war in Gaza and free remaining hostages. A new round of talks is due to commence Thursday in Qatar. 

As the U.S. and its allies scrambled to try to ward off a broader conflict, Pezeshkian said during a call with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer that it was Iran’s “legal right” to respond. Foreign ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani on Tuesday dismissed Western calls for Iran to avoid escalating tensions in the region.

Accusing Israel of having violated Iran’s “sovereignty and territorial integrity” by killing Haniyeh in Tehran, Kanaani said the calls for Iran to de-escalate “lack political logic” and “amount to open and practical support for the source of international crimes and terrorism in the region.”

But some in Tehran told NBC News that Iran could keep Israel on its toes without a major retaliation. 

“No attack needed,” Nima Hosseini, a government worker, said. “A response in kind and in due time is a better alternative. Of course keeping Israel on high alert via rhetoric and verbal threats can be a smart strategy this time around,” Hosseini, 50, said. 

Others sounded worried about the prospect of Iran being sucked into a wider conflict. “There is no one in the world who likes war, but I am very worried about it,” Taha Azimi, 40, a construction worker, said. “I believe that Iran will definitely respond to Israel’s attacks to regain its dignity.”

Haniyeh’s assassination is “unacceptable” for the leaders of Iran, he said, given that the killing of an important political partner in Tehran has caused many problems for them both inside and outside the country. 

“For example, people inside the country think that the government does not have the ability to control the security of the capital or people outside conclude that there are many spies in Iran’s security system,” Azimi said.

Iran launched a limited retaliatory attack against Israel in April, the first time Tehran had directly attacked the Jewish state. 

Delaram Nemati, 30, who works for an architecture firm, said Iran will carry out the same limited strike this time around, “without any danger.” Still, she is worried that even that could lead to a wide-scale conflict. “I worry about war but try not to think about it,” Nemati said. 

Amin Khodadadi reported from Tehran, and Yuliya Talmazan reported from London.